Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.124906 19.663054 22.634756 26.420168 31.186964 37.093965 45.139033
2025-02-23 13.885355 16.918570 20.805364 26.305775 34.166156 45.483746 64.068638
2025-03-02 12.040962 15.229754 19.560950 26.144438 36.452298 53.131761 85.297349
2025-03-09 10.892237 14.189294 18.882263 26.454449 39.297283 62.466609 115.111440
2025-03-16 9.719283 12.917621 17.619363 25.533847 39.771954 67.723407 140.676958
2025-03-23 8.978551 12.164131 16.995618 25.477031 41.683725 76.521243 183.402641
2025-03-30 8.140078 11.166108 15.850337 24.306825 41.148828 79.781152 214.120879
2025-04-06 7.389829 10.231280 14.697702 22.934579 39.874587 80.805849 239.200054
2025-04-13 6.802311 9.500166 13.802700 21.900545 39.082887 82.815895 272.408070
2025-04-20 6.919657 9.888891 14.810747 24.602995 47.290133 114.700358 545.043983
2025-04-27 6.727870 9.753940 14.894011 25.495261 51.558206 138.199000 917.318543
2025-05-04 6.275601 9.149854 14.079519 24.394966 50.381406 141.032449 1106.419054
2025-05-11 6.088802 8.997714 14.103689 25.169733 54.786977 171.897031 2288.058570
2025-05-18 5.806565 8.661167 13.753651 25.069556 56.727795 194.714223 4497.547746
2025-05-25 5.546754 8.343570 13.406790 24.918777 58.495851 219.670561 10886.314844
2025-06-01 5.359105 8.138994 13.257016 25.208065 61.839379 260.467731 72319.577353
2025-06-08 5.068670 7.731376 12.671315 24.348719 60.983436 271.911928 547813.829862
2025-06-15 4.883074 7.501912 12.422584 24.295654 63.049837 311.356268 NaN
2025-06-22 4.611753 7.101040 11.797025 23.201913 60.905236 311.263517 NaN
2025-06-29 4.340459 6.688273 11.123225 21.917385 57.753249 298.592324 NaN
2025-07-06 4.115819 6.352245 10.588794 20.948017 55.656387 295.129921 NaN
2025-07-13 4.219922 6.628992 11.339362 23.478873 68.748625 506.849460 NaN
2025-07-20 4.166830 6.606137 11.455739 24.312681 75.236742 690.199319 NaN